Port Vale 2–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Accrington ST

L. Tolaj 56'

J. Stockley 7'

T. Walton 51'

2/1/2025

League Two · Round 30Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Port Vale50%

×Draw26%

Accrington ST25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.00

Port Vale

1.53

Accrington ST

1.00

Port Vale creates 53% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 29 away

1.66

creates per match

0.90

1.09

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Port Vale

1.66

Accrington ST

0.90

allows per match

Port Vale

1.09

Accrington ST

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

75%

Port Vale or Accrington ST

74%

Draw or Accrington ST

50%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

25%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

78%

Port Vale 2+ goals

45%

Port Vale 3+ goals

20%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

63%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

26%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

67%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Accrington ST defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Port Vale scores more

50%

level

26%

Accrington ST scores more

25%

Port Vale at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Tolaj

Port Vale · F

7.9

Match Events

7'

13'

22'

27'

44'

46'

51'

56'

58'

D. Matthews← F. Rawson

68'

G. Byers← R. Harper

69'

Jayden Stockley

72'

Donald Love

79'

C. Brown← S. Aljofree

80'

J. Umolu← J. Stockley

86'

C. O'Brien← J. Batty

89'

B. Heneghan← L. Tolaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortAccrington

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots16

4Corners5

8Fouls22

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target4

2Off Target7

4Blocked5

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box9

Passing

38%Possession62%

263Total Passes427

180Accurate Passes370

68%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls22

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0