Accrington ST 0–2 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

M. Faal 85'

C. Hall 82'

10/7/2025

League #46 · Northern - 2The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Accrington ST43%

×Draw23%

Port Vale34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.60

Accrington ST

1.81

Port Vale

1.60

Accrington ST creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

3.33

creates per match

1.86

1.33

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

Accrington ST

3.33

Port Vale

1.86

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.33

Port Vale

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

66%

Accrington ST or Port Vale

77%

Draw or Port Vale

57%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

23%

Port Vale wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

84%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

54%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

27%

Port Vale 1+ goals

80%

Port Vale 2+ goals

47%

Port Vale 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

56%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 3.33 + Port Vale defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Port Vale attack 1.86 + Accrington ST defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Accrington ST scores more

43%

level

23%

Port Vale scores more

34%

Accrington ST at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Curtis

Port Vale · M

8.3

Match Events

45'

46'

48'

51'

67'

68'

69'

G. Hall← R. Paton

70'

D. Brown← J. Stockley

78'

78'

82'

82'

85'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonPort

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots12

4Corners3

14Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots12

2On Target5

8Off Target4

6Blocked3

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

361Total Passes332

254Accurate Passes220

70%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls13

5Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

League #46: Accrington ST 0–2 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Accrington ST 2-0 in League #46 on October 7, 2025.

Goals: C. Hall (82'), M. Faal (85').

Accrington ST controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Wham Stadium in Accrington.

Accrington ST vs Port Vale — League #46 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #46: Accrington ST 0–2 Port Vale