Accrington ST 2–2 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Port Vale

D. Love 43'

S. Whalley 29'

A. Hackford 90+5'

J. Stockley 90'

9/21/2024

League Two · Round 7Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Accrington ST33%

×Draw27%

Port Vale40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.31

Accrington ST

1.17

Port Vale

1.31

Port Vale creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

1.14

creates per match

1.42

1.21

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.14

Port Vale

1.42

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.21

Port Vale

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

60%

Accrington ST or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

67%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

14%

Port Vale wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

69%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

33%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

11%

Port Vale 1+ goals

73%

Port Vale 2+ goals

38%

Port Vale 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

45%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.14 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Accrington ST defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Accrington ST scores more

33%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

40%

Port Vale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Whalley

Accrington ST · M

8.2

Match Events

29'

S. Whalley↳ J. Batty

43'

D. Love↳ S. Whalley

46'

R. Croasdale← E. Chislett

46'

B. Heneghan← B. Baker-Boaitey

55'

Dara Costelloe

66'

Seamus Conneely

71'

R. Curtis← G. Byers

71'

A. Hackford← B. Cover

81'

J. Knowles← D. Costelloe

81'

R. Paton← L. Tolaj

86'

B. Woods← S. Whalley

90+2'

Connor O'Brien

90'

J. Stockley↳ R. Croasdale

90+5'

A. Hackford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonPort

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots14

3Corners8

11Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target6

5Off Target2

4Blocked6

9Inside Box10

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

267Total Passes346

145Accurate Passes224

54%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0