Popayan 1–2 Patriotas: Result & Stats | Primera B

Popayan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Patriotas

C. Gomez 59'

J. Hurtado 83'

M. Gomez 22'

2/21/2025

Primera B · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Popayan36%

×Draw31%

Patriotas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PopayanExpected goals in this matchPatriotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.97

Popayan

1.03

Patriotas

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 52 away

0.98

creates per match

0.90

1.04

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Popayan

0.98

Patriotas

0.90

allows per match

Popayan

1.04

Patriotas

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par

Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Patriotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Popayan or draw

67%

Popayan or Patriotas

69%

Draw or Patriotas

64%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+

14%

Patriotas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals

64%

Popayan 2+ goals

28%

Popayan 3+ goals

9%

Patriotas 1+ goals

62%

Patriotas 2+ goals

25%

Patriotas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)

52%

Patriotas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 121 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.98 + Patriotas defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Patriotas attack 0.90 + Popayan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Popayan scores more

36%

level

31%

Patriotas scores more

33%

Popayan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Gomez

44'

L. Perez

46'

C. Gomez← J. Jaramillo

57'

59'

67'

73'

73'

C. Copete← R. Brochero

75'

F. Figueroa

80'

L. Perez

80'

L. Perez

82'

J. Chaverra Palacios←

82'

J. Perea← M. Garavito

83'

J. Hurtado

90'

J. Chaverra Palacios

90+5'

C. De Las Salas

90'

J. Mosquera← J. Aponza

Popayan

Patriotas

12

Espitia

11

⚽

Gomez

33

▼

Garavito

4

⚽

Hurtado

6

▼

Perea

5

Sandoval

18

▼

19

22

25

9

▼

12

18

2

4

26

6

8

5

11

10

▼

Aponza

29

▼

Jaramillo

Manager: J. Rodríguez

46'▲C. Gomez←▼J. Jaramillo

82'▲J. Chaverra Palacios←▼—

90'▲J. Mosquera←▼J. Aponza

Popayan substitutes

30Ordonez28Cordoba19Mosquera25Borrero22Henao7Palacios17Gomez

57'▲F. Torres←▼J. Angulo

73'▲E. Sarria←▼V. Perea

73'▲C. Copete←▼R. Brochero

82'▲J. Perea←▼M. Garavito

Patriotas substitutes

27Sarria20Copete1Garcia30Payares17Carmona15Torres37Perea

Primera B: Popayan 1–2 Patriotas

Patriotas beat Popayan 2-1 in Primera B on February 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Gomez (22'), C. Gomez (59'), J. Hurtado (83').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.

Popayan vs Patriotas — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Popayan 1–2 Patriotas