Patriotas 3–3 Popayan: Result & Stats | Primera B

Patriotas

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Popayan

K. Alvarez 69', 45' (pen)

M. Gomez 17'

P. Urrutia 85', 27'

H. Angulo Perlaza 31'

3/21/2026

Primera B · Apertura - 11Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Patriotas55%

×Draw27%

Popayan18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatriotasExpected goals in this matchPopayan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.72

Patriotas

1.46

Popayan

0.72

Patriotas creates 103% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 121 away

1.41

creates per match

0.82

0.63

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Patriotas

1.41

Popayan

0.82

allows per match

Patriotas

0.63

Popayan

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patriotas+0.00on par

Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patriotas ↓

Popayan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Patriotas or draw

82%

Patriotas or Popayan

73%

Draw or Popayan

45%

Winning margin

Patriotas wins by 2+

28%

Popayan wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Patriotas 1+ goals

77%

Patriotas 2+ goals

43%

Patriotas 3+ goals

18%

Popayan 1+ goals

51%

Popayan 2+ goals

16%

Popayan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Patriotas (draw refunded)

75%

Popayan (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patriotas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patriotas attack 1.41 + Popayan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Popayan attack 0.82 + Patriotas defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Patriotas scores more

55%

level

27%

Popayan scores more

18%

Patriotas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Gomez

27'

P. Urrutia

31'

H. Angulo Perlaza

35'

F. Torres← F. Figueroa

42'

J. Caicedo←

45'

K. AlvarezPenalty

63'

B. Fernandez← M. Gomez

63'

A. Mora← J. Montes

69'

K. Alvarez

72'

G. Chara← D. Diaz

82'

J. Montano← J. Vasco

85'

P. Urrutia

88'

J. Sanchez← J. Campana

90+1'

Carabali

Patriotas

Popayan

12

18

20

11

35

6

25

▼

Vasco

5

⚽

Perlaza

31

▼

Diaz

7

Cuero

21

⚽2

1

22

2

4

17

19

▼

Figueroa

5

Sandoval

10

⚽2

Alvarez

7

▼

Campana

14

▼

Montes

30

⚽

▼

Gomez

35'▲F. Torres←▼F. Figueroa

63'▲B. Fernandez←▼M. Gomez

63'▲A. Mora←▼J. Montes

88'▲J. Sanchez←▼J. Campana

Patriotas substitutes

12Espitia6Torres9Fernandez15Ordonez16Molina23Barahona27Mora28Zapata29Sanchez

Manager: Manuel Rodriguez Becerra Jose

42'▲J. Caicedo←▼—

72'▲G. Chara←▼D. Diaz

82'▲J. Montano←▼J. Vasco

Popayan substitutes

1Hoyos9Caicedo2Montano17Reina14Chara22Arce

Match Recap: Patriotas vs Popayan

Patriotas and Popayan drew 3-3 in Primera B on March 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Gomez (17'), P. Urrutia (27', 85'), H. Angulo Perlaza (31'), K. Alvarez (45' pen, 69').

The match was played at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja.

Patriotas vs Popayan — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Patriotas vs Popayan