Patriotas vs Popayan — Primera B 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Patriotas55%
Popayan18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Patriotas creates 103% more chances
Season form · 51 home / 121 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Patriotas ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Patriotas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches
Popayan away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 121 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Patriotas attack 1.41 + Popayan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46
Popayan attack 0.82 + Patriotas defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Patriotas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Patriotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Internacional Palmira
Real Cartagena
QuindioPatriotas
Real Soacha
Jaguares
Cucuta
Envigado
Bogota FC
Union MagdalenaPopayan
Tigres FC
Barranquilla
Huila
Orsomarso
Real Santander
Depor FC
Leones FC
Ind. YumboIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Patriotas host Popayan on Sunday, 3 August 2025 at 20:30. The match is part of the Primera B 2018/2019 season.
Primera B: Patriotas 1–0 Popayan
Patriotas beat Popayan 1-0 in Primera B on August 3, 2025.
Goals: K. Alvarez (49').
The match was played at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja.