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Popayan vs America de Cali — Primera B 2018

Popayan
Popayan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
C. Rivas 55'
7/24/2016Primera BPrimera B · Round 20Estadio Ciro López (Popayán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Popayan27%
×Draw30%
America de Cali43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
0.88
America de Cali
1.19

America de Cali creates 35% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 9 away

creates per match

Popayan
0.98
America de Cali
1.33

allows per match

Popayan
1.04
America de Cali
0.78

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
57%
Popayan or America de Cali
70%
Draw or America de Cali
73%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
9%
America de Cali wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
59%
Popayan 2+ goals
22%
Popayan 3+ goals
6%
America de Cali 1+ goals
70%
America de Cali 2+ goals
33%
America de Cali 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
39%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 122 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.98 + America de Cali defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.88

America de Cali attack 1.33 + Popayan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Popayan scores more
27%
level
30%
America de Cali scores more
43%

America de Cali at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
C. Rivas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Popayan vs America de Cali

America de Cali beat Popayan 1-0 in Primera B on July 24, 2016.

Goals: C. Rivas (55').

The match was played at Estadio Ciro López (Popayán).