America de Cali 1–0 Popayan: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Popayan

J. Quiñónes 50'

2/14/2019

Copa Colombia · Group Stage - 1Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

America de Cali53%

×Draw27%

Popayan20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchPopayan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.75

America de Cali

1.43

Popayan

0.75

America de Cali creates 91% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

0.79

0.71

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

America de Cali

1.43

Popayan

0.79

allows per match

America de Cali

0.71

Popayan

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Popayan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

80%

America de Cali or Popayan

73%

Draw or Popayan

47%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

27%

Popayan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

76%

America de Cali 2+ goals

42%

America de Cali 3+ goals

17%

Popayan 1+ goals

53%

Popayan 2+ goals

17%

Popayan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

73%

Popayan (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.43 + Popayan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.43

Popayan attack 0.79 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

America de Cali scores more

53%

level

27%

Popayan scores more

20%

America de Cali at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Medina← L. Sánchez

50'

J. Quiñónes

56'

A. Montaño← H. Sánchez

56'

S. Rivera← D. Rodríguez

74'

J. Lara← Y. Quintero

86'

M. Guerrero← D. Buitrago

America

Popayan

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: F. Castro

46'▲J. Medina←▼L. Sánchez

86'▲M. Guerrero←▼D. Buitrago

America de Cali substitutes

MedinaGuerreroQuiñónesViverosPinilloJiménezMoreno

Manager: A. Guerrero

56'▲A. Montaño←▼H. Sánchez

56'▲S. Rivera←▼D. Rodríguez

74'▲J. Lara←▼Y. Quintero

Popayan substitutes

MontañoRiveraLaraMoralesAsprillaPreciadoMezú