Popayan 1–1 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Popayan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

America de Cali

J. Figueroa 32'

J. Angulo 25'

11/20/2016

Primera B · Promotion Round - 5Estadio Ciro López (Popayán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Popayan27%

×Draw31%

America de Cali42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PopayanExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.12

Popayan

0.84

America de Cali

1.12

America de Cali creates 33% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 10 away

0.98

creates per match

1.20

1.04

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Popayan

0.98

America de Cali

1.20

allows per match

Popayan

1.04

America de Cali

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Popayan or draw

58%

Popayan or America de Cali

69%

Draw or America de Cali

73%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+

9%

America de Cali wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals

57%

Popayan 2+ goals

21%

Popayan 3+ goals

5%

America de Cali 1+ goals

67%

America de Cali 2+ goals

31%

America de Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)

39%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 122 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.98 + America de Cali defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

America de Cali attack 1.20 + Popayan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Popayan scores more

27%

level

31%

America de Cali scores more

42%

America de Cali at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

J. Angulo

32'

J. Figueroa

46'

J. Pretel← J. Bedoya

70'

J. Portilla← W. España

70'

J. Álvarez← Jonny Mosquera

74'

F. Mercado← E. Farías

81'

W. Arboleda← Brayan Angulo Mosquera

88'

D. Quiñones← S. Bermúdez

Popayan

America

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Torres

46'▲J. Pretel←▼J. Bedoya

70'▲J. Portilla←▼W. España

88'▲D. Quiñones←▼S. Bermúdez

Popayan substitutes

PretelPortillaQuiñones

Manager: H. Torres

70'▲J. Álvarez←▼Jonny Mosquera

74'▲F. Mercado←▼E. Farías

81'▲W. Arboleda←▼Brayan Angulo Mosquera

America de Cali substitutes

ÁlvarezMercadoArboleda