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Ponte Preta vs Goias — Serie B 2026

Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
Preview
19:00
Goias
Goias
7/18/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 18
Big match
37%
Goias
model favours
35%28%37%

Ponte Preta score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ponte Preta35%
×Draw28%
Goias37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta
1.13
Goias
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta
1.07
Goias
1.03

allows per match

Ponte Preta
1.33
Goias
1.18

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par
Goias+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Goias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw
63%
Ponte Preta or Goias
72%
Draw or Goias
65%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+
14%
Goias wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals
68%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
31%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
11%
Goias 1+ goals
69%
Goias 2+ goals
33%
Goias 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
48%
Goias (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Goias away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.07 + Goias defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Goias attack 1.03 + Ponte Preta defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ponte Preta scores more
35%
level
28%
Goias scores more
37%

Goias at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 68% of Goias’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Ponte Preta sit 19, Goias 9 in the table
  • 32% of Goias’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Preta
LLLLL
Goias
DWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ponte Preta face Goias (Serie B)

Serie B returns with Ponte Preta hosting Goias. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.