Ponte Preta 1–1 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ponte Preta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Goias

Dodô 88'

Mateus Gonçalves 42'

8/17/2024

Serie B · Round 21Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ponte Preta36%

×Draw28%

Goias36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

Ponte Preta

1.16

Goias

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

1.12

creates per match

1.03

1.29

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.12

Goias

1.03

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.29

Goias

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Goias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

64%

Ponte Preta or Goias

72%

Draw or Goias

64%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

15%

Goias wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

69%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

32%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

11%

Goias 1+ goals

69%

Goias 2+ goals

32%

Goias 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

50%

Goias (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Goias away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.12 + Goias defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Goias attack 1.03 + Ponte Preta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

36%

level

28%

Goias scores more

36%

Ponte Preta at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Dodô

Ponte Preta · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

Thiago Galhardo← Á. Rodríguez

42'

Mateus Gonçalves↳ Rafael Gava

44'

Matheus Régis← Gabriel Novaes

46'

Renato← Venícius

63'

Renato

64'

Dieguinho

68'

RenatoPenalty cancelled

71'

Castro

73'

Elvis

73'

Rildo← Welliton

75'

Rildo

76'

Thomas Luciano← G. Risso Patrón

76'

Dodô← Élvis

80'

Ramon← Emerson Santos

85'

Régis← Rafael Gava

85'

Nathan Melo← Marcão

85'

Edu← Mateus Gonçalves

87'

Régis

88'

Dodô

90+9'

Degê← Sander

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonteGoias

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots11

1.52Expected Goals (xG)1.49

5Corners9

12Fouls18

Shots

22Total Shots11

6On Target2

10Off Target5

6Blocked4

12Inside Box8

10Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

441Total Passes254

364Accurate Passes174

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Serie B: Ponte Preta 1–1 Goias

Ponte Preta and Goias drew 1-1 in Serie B on August 17, 2024.

Goals: Mateus Gonçalves (42'), Dodô (88').

Ponte Preta controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas, São Paulo.

Ponte Preta vs Goias — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Ponte Preta 1–1 Goias