Goias 2–2 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats | Serie B

Goias

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ponte Preta

David Duarte 86'

Tiago Luis 27'

André Luis 23'

Junior Santos 5'

9/21/2018

Serie B · Round 28Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Goias54%

×Draw25%

Ponte Preta21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.89

Goias

1.61

Ponte Preta

0.89

Goias creates 81% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

1.40

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Goias

1.40

Ponte Preta

0.78

allows per match

Goias

1.00

Ponte Preta

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goias+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Goias or draw

79%

Goias or Ponte Preta

75%

Draw or Ponte Preta

46%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

29%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

80%

Goias 2+ goals

48%

Goias 3+ goals

22%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

59%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

22%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

72%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.40 + Ponte Preta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ponte Preta attack 0.78 + Goias defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Goias scores more

54%

level

25%

Ponte Preta scores more

21%

Goias at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Junior Santos↳ Matheus Vargas

23'

André Luis↳ Junior Santos

27'

34'

37'

43'

45'

54'

54'

58'

67'

Tiago Real← Matheus Vargas

69'

Caique Sá← Alex Silva

70'

André Castro← João Vitor

71'

74'

75'

85'

85'

86'

David Duarte↳ Caique Sá

87'

Renan Fonseca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasPonte

Overview

64%Possession36%

24Total Shots10

10Corners3

11Fouls16

Shots

24Total Shots10

10On Target4

8Off Target5

6Blocked1

12Inside Box8

12Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

536Total Passes308

462Accurate Passes231

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls16

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1