Goias 2–2 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats | Serie B

Goias

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ponte Preta

Alef Manga 89'

Dadá Belmonte 72'

Leo 45+1'

Fábio Sanches 30'

11/3/2021

Serie B · Round 33Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Goias55%

×Draw25%

Ponte Preta20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.88

Goias

1.64

Ponte Preta

0.88

Goias creates 86% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 16 away

1.40

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Goias

1.40

Ponte Preta

0.75

allows per match

Goias

1.00

Ponte Preta

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goias+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Goias or draw

80%

Goias or Ponte Preta

75%

Draw or Ponte Preta

45%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

30%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

81%

Goias 2+ goals

49%

Goias 3+ goals

23%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

59%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

22%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

73%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.40 + Ponte Preta defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ponte Preta attack 0.75 + Goias defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Goias scores more

55%

level

25%

Ponte Preta scores more

20%

Goias at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Dadá Belmonte

Goias · M

8.3

Match Events

30'

Fábio Sanches↳ Rafael Santos

34'

Hugo

45+1'

Leo↳ Marcos

46'

Alef Manga← Luan

46'

Fellipe Bastos← Rezende

53'

Caio

55'

Rayan

64'

Dadá Belmonte← Apodi

64'

André Luiz← Yago

71'

Richard Rodrigues← Iago

71'

Marcelo Hermes← Rafael Santos

72'

Dadá Belmonte↳ Nicolas

76'

Albano← Welliton

76'

Camilo← Marcos

76'

Josiel← Rodrigão

89'

Alef Manga↳ Dadá Belmonte

90+3'

Bruno Mezenga← Nicolas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasPonte

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots7

8Corners5

16Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots7

5On Target4

8Off Target2

6Blocked1

11Inside Box3

8Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

436Total Passes252

349Accurate Passes163

80%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0