Ponte Preta 1–1 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ponte Preta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ceara

Luis Phelipe 53'

Sanchez 81'

4/2/2026

Serie B · Round 2Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Ponte Preta44%

×Draw25%

Ceara31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.24

Ponte Preta

1.54

Ceara

1.24

Ponte Preta creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.54

creates per match

1.22

1.26

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.54

Ceara

1.22

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.26

Ceara

1.54

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Ponte Preta-0.43scores less

Ceara-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

69%

Ponte Preta or Ceara

75%

Draw or Ceara

56%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

22%

Ceara wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

79%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

45%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

20%

Ceara 1+ goals

71%

Ceara 2+ goals

35%

Ceara 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

59%

Ceara (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.54 + Ceara defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ceara attack 1.22 + Ponte Preta defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

44%

level

25%

Ceara scores more

31%

Ponte Preta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

David Braz

Ponte Preta · D

7.5

Match Events

23'

45'

45'

53'

54'

Matheusinho← Fernandinho

54'

Juan Alano← Richardson

59'

Baianinho← Luis Phelipe

59'

Leo Gomes← Murilo

64'

Matheus Araujo

65'

David Braz

66'

Sanchez← Wendel Silva

66'

Giulio← Matheus Araujo

69'

Lucas Justen← Thalys

71'

Bryan Borges

74'

Danilo Barcelos← Diego Porfirio

74'

Bruno Lopes← Elvis

75'

Alex Silva← Fernando

81'

Sanchez↳ Giulio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonteCeara

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots14

1.44Expected Goals (xG)2.03

4Corners6

20Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target4

3Off Target6

2Blocked4

8Inside Box11

1Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

427Total Passes304

371Accurate Passes234

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.37Goals Prevented0.37

Discipline

20Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Ponte Preta vs Ceara

Ponte Preta and Ceara drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 2, 2026.

Goals: Luis Phelipe (53'), Sanchez (81').

Ponte Preta controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas.

Ponte Preta vs Ceara — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ponte Preta vs Ceara