Ceara 1–1 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ceara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta

Chrystian Barletta 46'

Eliel 69'

8/20/2023

Serie B · Round 24Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Ceara52%

×Draw26%

Ponte Preta22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.90

Ceara

1.52

Ponte Preta

0.90

Ceara creates 69% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.26

creates per match

0.78

1.01

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Ceara

1.26

Ponte Preta

0.78

allows per match

Ceara

1.01

Ponte Preta

1.78

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Ceara-0.16scores less

Ponte Preta-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

78%

Ceara or Ponte Preta

74%

Draw or Ponte Preta

48%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

27%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

78%

Ceara 2+ goals

45%

Ceara 3+ goals

20%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

59%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

23%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

70%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.01 · 10 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.78 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.26 + Ponte Preta defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ponte Preta attack 0.78 + Ceara defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ceara scores more

52%

level

26%

Ponte Preta scores more

22%

Ceara at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Eliel

Ponte Preta · F

7.7

Match Events

45+6'

45+6'

46'

54'

60'

Cléber← Bissoli

62'

Lucas Nathan← Felipe Amaral

62'

Igor Torres← André Felipe

65'

CléberGoal cancelled

69'

Eliel

72'

Artur

74'

Erick← Chrystian Barletta

74'

Zé Ricardo← Breno

77'

Maílton← Eliel

80'

Weverton← Luiz Felipe

80'

Thomás Kayck← Mateus Silva

82'

Janderson← Willian Maranhão

83'

Pedro Lucas← Jean Carlos

86'

Leo Naldi

90+4'

Artur

90+4'

Artur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaPonte

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots12

1.01Expected Goals (xG)1.25

4Corners5

18Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots12

7On Target4

7Off Target6

2Blocked2

5Inside Box9

11Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

438Total Passes300

348Accurate Passes213

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2