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Ceara vs Ponte Preta — Serie B 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
L. Mugni 22'
10/12/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 31Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Ceara52%
×Draw26%
Ponte Preta22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.52
Ponte Preta
0.90

Ceara creates 69% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.26
Ponte Preta
0.78

allows per match

Ceara
1.01
Ponte Preta
1.78

finishing

Ceara-0.16scores less
Ponte Preta-0.11scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Ponte Preta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
78%
Ceara or Ponte Preta
74%
Draw or Ponte Preta
48%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
27%
Ponte Preta wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
78%
Ceara 2+ goals
45%
Ceara 3+ goals
20%
Ponte Preta 1+ goals
59%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
23%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
70%
Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.01 · 10 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.78 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.26 + Ponte Preta defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ponte Preta attack 0.78 + Ceara defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ceara scores more
52%
level
26%
Ponte Preta scores more
22%

Ceara at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
João PedroCearaCeara · D
7.7

Match Events

22'
L. Mugni↳ Lucas
38'
João Gabriel
43'
Pedro Rocha
58'
Matheus Bahia
59'
Emerson Santos
64'
Talisson← Lucas
65'
J. Recalde← L. Mugni
68'
Élvis← Éverton Brito
68'
Igor Inocêncio← Luiz Felipe
69'
Matheus Régis← Iago Dias
69'
Hudson← Emerson Santos
71'
Hudson
76'
Ramon← Emerson
82'
Lourenço
86'
F. Barceló← Aylon
90+4'
Andrey← Lourenço
90+4'
Luiz Otávio← João Pedro

Possession

43%Ceara

Shots

15Ceara

Pass accuracy

49%Ceara

Statistics

CearaPonte
Overview
43%Possession57%
15Total Shots8
9Corners8
11Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots8
7On Target3
3Off Target2
5Blocked3
11Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
359Total Passes500
285Accurate Passes407
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls17
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Serie B: Ceara 1–0 Ponte Preta

Ceara beat Ponte Preta 1-0 in Serie B on October 12, 2024.

Goals: L. Mugni (22').

Ponte Preta controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.