Polonia Bytom 2–4 Pawłowice Śląskie: Result & Stats

Polonia Bytom

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Pawłowice Śląskie

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Polonia Bytom69%

×Draw14%

Pawłowice Śląskie17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia BytomExpected goals in this matchPawłowice Śląskie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.93

2.00

Polonia Bytom

3.93

Pawłowice Śląskie

2.00

Polonia Bytom creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

1.53

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

6.33

creates per match

Polonia Bytom

1.53

Pawłowice Śląskie

2.00

allows per match

Polonia Bytom

2.00

Pawłowice Śląskie

6.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw

83%

Polonia Bytom or Pawłowice Śląskie

86%

Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie

31%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

52%

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

98%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

89%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

72%

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

86%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

59%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

81%

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 2.00, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 1.53 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 3.93

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 2.00 + Polonia Bytom defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more

69%

level

14%

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

17%

Polonia Bytom at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff