Polonia Bytom 2–0 Pawłowice Śląskie: Result & Stats

Polonia Bytom

FT

2 – 0

Pawłowice Śląskie

10/9/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Polonia Bytom60%

×Draw21%

Pawłowice Śląskie19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia BytomExpected goals in this matchPawłowice Śląskie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.08

Polonia Bytom

2.06

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.08

Polonia Bytom creates 91% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 102 away

2.33

creates per match

1.20

0.96

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Polonia Bytom

2.33

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.20

allows per match

Polonia Bytom

0.96

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw

81%

Polonia Bytom or Pawłowice Śląskie

79%

Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie

40%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

36%

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

87%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

61%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

34%

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

66%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

29%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

76%

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.33 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.06

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Polonia Bytom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more

60%

level

21%

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

19%

Polonia Bytom at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff