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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Polonia Bytom — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
0 – 2
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
6/10/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie33%
×Draw23%
Polonia Bytom44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.50
Polonia Bytom
1.77

Polonia Bytom creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Polonia Bytom
1.92

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Polonia Bytom
1.15

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
56%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Polonia Bytom
77%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
67%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
15%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
78%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
44%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
19%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
83%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
53%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
43%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Polonia Bytom attack 1.92 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
33%
level
23%
Polonia Bytom scores more
44%

Polonia Bytom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Pawłowice Śląskie 0–2 Polonia Bytom

Polonia Bytom beat Pawłowice Śląskie 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.