Polideportivo Almería 1–0 Melilla CD

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Melilla CD

Sergio Ponte 81'

5/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 7Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Polideportivo Almería58%

×Draw22%

Melilla CD20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMelilla CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.04

Polideportivo Almería

1.94

Melilla CD

1.04

Polideportivo Almería creates 87% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 28 away

1.26

creates per match

0.82

1.27

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Melilla CD

0.82

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Melilla CD

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Melilla CD →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

80%

Polideportivo Almería or Melilla CD

78%

Draw or Melilla CD

42%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

34%

Melilla CD wins by 2+

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

86%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

58%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

30%

Melilla CD 1+ goals

65%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

28%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

74%

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

58%

level

22%

Melilla CD scores more

20%

Polideportivo Almería at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Alonso← Marcos Moreno

55'

Sergio Ponte← José Carlos

60'

Carlos Cañadas← Y. Chaou

60'

José Medina← Nabil

70'

Álvaro Cruz← Zakaría

70'

Ablaye← Manolo

70'

Pinteño← Antonio Hernández

75'

Ramón Cuadrado← Brahim Amar

81'

Sergio Ponte

85'

Sebas← L. Ligio

Polideportivo

Melilla

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Manager: Ricardo García

36'▲Alonso←▼Marcos Moreno

55'▲Sergio Ponte←▼José Carlos

70'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Zakaría

70'▲Ablaye←▼Manolo

70'▲Pinteño←▼Antonio Hernández

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

AlonsoPonteCruzAblayePinteño

Manager: Nacho Aznar

60'▲Carlos Cañadas←▼Y. Chaou

60'▲José Medina←▼Nabil

75'▲Ramón Cuadrado←▼Brahim Amar

85'▲Sebas←▼L. Ligio

Melilla CD substitutes

CañadasMedinaCuadradoSebas