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Melilla CD vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Melilla CD
Melilla CD
CANC
00:00
Polideportivo Almería
Polideportivo Almería
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Melilla CD43%
×Draw28%
Polideportivo Almería29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla CD
1.33
Polideportivo Almería
1.04

Melilla CD creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 63 away

creates per match

Melilla CD
0.79
Polideportivo Almería
0.84

allows per match

Melilla CD
1.24
Polideportivo Almería
1.86

finishing

Melilla CD+0.00on par
Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla CD ↓

Polideportivo Almería →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Melilla CD or draw
71%
Melilla CD or Polideportivo Almería
72%
Draw or Polideportivo Almería
57%

Winning margin

Melilla CD wins by 2+
20%
Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Melilla CD 1+ goals
74%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
38%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
15%
Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals
65%
Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals
28%
Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Melilla CD (draw refunded)
60%
Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla CD at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla CD attack 0.79 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.33

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Melilla CD defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melilla CD scores more
43%
level
28%
Polideportivo Almería scores more
29%

Melilla CD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melilla CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla CD vs Polideportivo Almería — Match Preview

Melilla CD face Polideportivo Almería on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Melilla CD host Polideportivo Almería at Estadio La Espiguera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.