Melilla CD 1–1 Polideportivo Almería

Melilla CD

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Y. Chaou 85'

Luis Suanes 90+1'

4/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Melilla CD43%

×Draw28%

Polideportivo Almería29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melilla CDExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.04

Melilla CD

1.33

Polideportivo Almería

1.04

Melilla CD creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 63 away

0.79

creates per match

0.84

1.24

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Melilla CD

0.79

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Melilla CD

1.24

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla CD ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Melilla CD or draw

71%

Melilla CD or Polideportivo Almería

72%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

57%

Winning margin

Melilla CD wins by 2+

20%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Melilla CD 1+ goals

74%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

38%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

15%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

65%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

28%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

60%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Melilla CD at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Melilla CD attack 0.79 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.33

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Melilla CD defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melilla CD scores more

43%

level

28%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

29%

Melilla CD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melilla CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Y. Chaou← Nabil

56'

José Medina← Carlos Cañadas

58'

Jose Benitez← Manolo

60'

Redouan← Roberto García

71'

José Carlos← Ablaye

71'

Antonio Hernández← Sergio Ponte

79'

Ibrahim Al-Luch← I. Muntaabski

82'

Álvaro Cruz← Álvaro De la Rosa

85'

Y. Chaou

90+1'

Luis Suanes

Melilla

Polideportivo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Nacho Aznar

56'▲Y. Chaou←▼Nabil

56'▲José Medina←▼Carlos Cañadas

60'▲Redouan←▼Roberto García

79'▲Ibrahim Al-Luch←▼I. Muntaabski

Melilla CD substitutes

ChaouMedinaRedouanAl-Luch

Manager: Ricardo García

58'▲Jose Benitez←▼Manolo

71'▲José Carlos←▼Ablaye

71'▲Antonio Hernández←▼Sergio Ponte

82'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Álvaro De la Rosa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

BenitezCarlosHernándezCruz