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Polideportivo Almería vs El Palo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Polideportivo Almería
Polideportivo Almería
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
El Palo
El Palo
Daniel Lidueña 45+2'
Cristian Medina 42'
Alberto Camacho 1'
12/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería42%
×Draw27%
El Palo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polideportivo Almería
1.32
El Palo
1.07

Polideportivo Almería creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 91 away

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.26
El Palo
0.87

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.27
El Palo
1.38

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par
El Palo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

El Palo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw
70%
Polideportivo Almería or El Palo
73%
Draw or El Palo
58%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+
19%
El Palo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals
73%
Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals
38%
Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals
15%
El Palo 1+ goals
66%
El Palo 2+ goals
29%
El Palo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)
58%
El Palo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

El Palo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + El Palo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

El Palo attack 0.87 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more
42%
level
27%
El Palo scores more
30%

Polideportivo Almería at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Alberto Camacho
18'
Jorge Gómez← Luis Torres
24'
Adrián Jarauta← Alberto Camacho
42'
Cristian Medina
45+2'
Daniel Lidueña
46'
Campanas← Pablo Checa
60'
Antoñito← Dani Mesas
65'
Carlos Camacho← Cala
65'
Víctor Torremocha← Josele
80'
Marcal Metcho← Linares
80'
Iker Soriano← J. Randal
90+4'
Rubén Cebrián← Cristian Medina
Polideportivo
El
Javi Téllez
Téllez
Jon Aparicio
Aparicio
Hugo David
David
Cervera
Cervera
Cala
▼
Cala
Carlos León
León
Alberto Camacho
⚽
▼
Camacho
Álex Tomé
Tomé
Cristian Medina
⚽
▼
Medina
Víctor Martínez
Martínez
Josele
▼
Josele
Manu
Manu
Linares
▼
Linares
Josema
Josema
Othman Ouhadi
Ouhadi
Luis Torres
▼
Torres
Pablo Abarca
Abarca
J. Randal
▼
Randal
Diego Felices
Felices
Pablo Checa
▼
Checa
Daniel Lidueña
⚽
Lidueña
Dani Mesas
▼
Mesas
David Cartagena
Manager: David Cartagena
18'▲Jorge Gómez←▼Luis Torres
46'▲Campanas←▼Pablo Checa
60'▲Antoñito←▼Dani Mesas
80'▲Marcal Metcho←▼Linares
80'▲Iker Soriano←▼J. Randal

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

GómezCampanasAntoñitoMetchoSoriano
Edu Oriol
Manager: Edu Oriol
24'▲Adrián Jarauta←▼Alberto Camacho
65'▲Carlos Camacho←▼Cala
65'▲Víctor Torremocha←▼Josele
90+4'▲Rubén Cebrián←▼Cristian Medina

El Palo substitutes

JarautaCamachoTorremochaCebrián

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs El Palo

El Palo beat Polideportivo Almería 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 8, 2024.

Goals: Alberto Camacho (1'), Cristian Medina (42'), Daniel Lidueña (45+2').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.