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Polideportivo Almería vs El Palo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Polideportivo Almería
Polideportivo Almería
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Palo
El Palo
12/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 18Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería42%
×Draw27%
El Palo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polideportivo Almería
1.32
El Palo
1.07

Polideportivo Almería creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 91 away

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.26
El Palo
0.87

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.27
El Palo
1.38

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par
El Palo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

El Palo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw
70%
Polideportivo Almería or El Palo
73%
Draw or El Palo
58%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+
19%
El Palo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals
73%
Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals
38%
Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals
15%
El Palo 1+ goals
66%
El Palo 2+ goals
29%
El Palo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)
58%
El Palo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

El Palo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + El Palo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

El Palo attack 0.87 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more
42%
level
27%
El Palo scores more
30%

Polideportivo Almería at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
Jorge Pina← Pepe Capitán
65'
Marcos Moreno← Ablaye
72'
Eloy← Balta
75'
Pedro Ruzzo← Edu Mendy
78'
Lautaro← Michel
80'
J. Duarte← Álex Barrera
Polideportivo
El
Manolo Reina
Reina
Antonio Antelo
Antelo
Lulú
Lulú
Nacho Aranda
Aranda
Salvi Ramírez
Ramírez
Jorge Durán
Durán
Álex Barrera
▼
Barrera
Borjita
Borjita
Alejandro Escardó
Escardó
Pepe Capitán
▼
Capitán
Balta
▼
Balta
Manu
Manu
Alberto Segura
Segura
Jesús
Jesús
David Simón
Simón
Pedro Ramírez
Ramírez
Ablaye
▼
Ablaye
Yasser
Yasser
Óscar Vega
Vega
Michel
▼
Michel
Edu Mendy
▼
Mendy
M. Saadi
Saadi
Juanfran Miras
Manager: Juanfran Miras
65'▲Marcos Moreno←▼Ablaye
75'▲Pedro Ruzzo←▼Edu Mendy
78'▲Lautaro←▼Michel

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

MorenoRuzzoLautaro
Funes
Manager: Funes
59'▲Jorge Pina←▼Pepe Capitán
72'▲Eloy←▼Balta
80'▲J. Duarte←▼Álex Barrera

El Palo substitutes

PinaEloyDuarte

Polideportivo Almería 0 – 0 El Palo

Polideportivo Almería and El Palo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra in Almería.