El Palo 3–0 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

El Palo

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Carlos León 32'

Alberto Camacho 16'

Carlos Camacho 2'

4/27/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Estadio San Ignacio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

El Palo54%

×Draw24%

Polideportivo Almería22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El PaloExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.96

El Palo

1.66

Polideportivo Almería

0.96

El Palo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 63 away

1.46

creates per match

0.84

1.08

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

El Palo

1.46

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

El Palo

1.08

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Palo+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palo ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

El Palo or draw

78%

El Palo or Polideportivo Almería

76%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

46%

Winning margin

El Palo wins by 2+

29%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

El Palo 1+ goals

81%

El Palo 2+ goals

49%

El Palo 3+ goals

23%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

62%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

25%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

El Palo (draw refunded)

71%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Palo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Palo attack 1.46 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.66

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + El Palo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

El Palo scores more

54%

level

24%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

22%

El Palo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "El Palo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Carlos Camacho

15'

Juan Oñate← Carlos Camacho

16'

Alberto Camacho

29'

Cervera← Miguel Gutiérrez

32'

Carlos León

46'

Álex Cazorla← Fran Requena

46'

Guille Espínola← H. El Ouakili

59'

Luciano← Pablo Abarca

79'

Germán Vélez← I. Touré

84'

Rich← Jon Aparicio

84'

Sebas← Alberto Camacho

84'

Raúl Gaitán← Álex Tomé

84'

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Camacho

▼

Tomé

Martínez

⚽

▼

Camacho

Torremoch

Manager: Raúl Gaitán

15'▲Juan Oñate←▼Carlos Camacho

29'▲Cervera←▼Miguel Gutiérrez

84'▲Rich←▼Jon Aparicio

84'▲Sebas←▼Alberto Camacho

84'▲Raúl Gaitán←▼Álex Tomé

El Palo substitutes

OñateCerveraRichSebasGaitán

Manager: Amando Alarcón

46'▲Álex Cazorla←▼Fran Requena

46'▲Guille Espínola←▼H. El Ouakili

59'▲Luciano←▼Pablo Abarca

79'▲Germán Vélez←▼I. Touré

84'▲Moussa←▼Dani Ibarra

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

CazorlaEspínolaLucianoVélezMoussa

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: El Palo 3–0 Polideportivo Almería

El Palo beat Polideportivo Almería 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: Carlos Camacho (2'), Alberto Camacho (16'), Carlos León (32').

The match was played at Estadio San Ignacio in Málaga.

El Palo vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: El Palo 3–0 Polideportivo Almería