Polessya 2–1 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv: Result & Stats

Polessya

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

11/11/2023

Premier League · Round 14Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Polessya44%

×Draw27%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolessyaExpected goals in this matchMetalist 1925 Kharkiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.07

Polessya

1.40

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.07

Polessya creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.01

creates per match

1.12

1.02

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Polessya

2.01

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.12

allows per match

Polessya

1.02

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

0.80

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Polessya-0.46scores less

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Polessya or draw

71%

Polessya or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

73%

Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

56%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+

21%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals

75%

Polessya 2+ goals

41%

Polessya 3+ goals

17%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

66%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

29%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)

61%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 2.01 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.12 + Polessya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Polessya scores more

44%

level

27%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

29%

Polessya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff