Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Polessya vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2019

Polessya
Polessya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4/5/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 20Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Polessya40%
×Draw27%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.31
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.15

Polessya creates 14% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 42 away

creates per match

Polessya
1.61
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.21

allows per match

Polessya
1.08
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.00

finishing

Polessya+0.00on par
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
67%
Polessya or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
73%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
60%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
18%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
73%
Polessya 2+ goals
38%
Polessya 3+ goals
14%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
68%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
32%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
55%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 1.61 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.21 + Polessya defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polessya scores more
40%
level
27%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
33%

Polessya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polessya vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Polessya and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv drew 0-0 in Persha Liga on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Zhytomyr.