Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3–3 Polessya: Result & Stats

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Polessya

5/19/2024

Premier League · Round 29Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv33%

×Draw27%

Polessya40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalist 1925 KharkivExpected goals in this matchPolessya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.35

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.21

Polessya

1.35

Polessya creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

1.98

0.72

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.32

Polessya

1.98

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

0.72

Polessya

1.10

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.52scores less

Polessya-0.60scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Polessya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw

60%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Polessya

73%

Draw or Polessya

67%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

14%

Polessya wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

70%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

34%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

12%

Polessya 1+ goals

74%

Polessya 2+ goals

39%

Polessya 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

46%

Polessya (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 5 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.32 + Polessya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Polessya attack 1.98 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

33%

level

27%

Polessya scores more

40%

Polessya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff