Poland 1–3 Austria: Result & Stats

Poland

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Austria

K. Piątek 30'

M. Arnautović 78' (pen)

C. Baumgartner 66'

G. Trauner 9'

6/21/2024

Euro Championship · Group D - 2Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Poland36%

×Draw26%

Austria39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchAustria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

Poland

1.33

Austria

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.44

creates per match

1.56

1.22

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Poland

1.44

Austria

1.56

allows per match

Poland

1.22

Austria

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Austria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Poland or draw

61%

Poland or Austria

74%

Draw or Austria

64%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

16%

Austria wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

74%

Poland 2+ goals

38%

Poland 3+ goals

15%

Austria 1+ goals

75%

Austria 2+ goals

40%

Austria 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

48%

Austria (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Austria away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.44 + Austria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Austria attack 1.56 + Poland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Poland scores more

36%

level

26%

Austria scores more

39%

Austria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Sabitzer

Austria · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

G. Trauner↳ P. Mwene

30'

K. Piątek

46'

J. Moder← J. Piotrowski

46'

P. Wimmer← F. Grillitsch

53'

Bartosz Slisz

56'

Patrick Wimmer

59'

K. Danso← G. Trauner

60'

R. Lewandowski← K. Piątek

60'

K. Świderski← A. Buksa

62'

Jakub Moder

63'

A. Prass← P. Mwene

64'

Robert Lewandowski

66'

C. Baumgartner↳ A. Prass

70'

Marko Arnautović

75'

K. Grosicki← B. Slisz

77'

Wojciech Szczęsny

78'

M. ArnautovićPenalty

81'

M. Gregoritsch← M. Arnautović

81'

R. Schmid← C. Baumgartner

87'

K. Urbański← P. Zieliński

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PolandAustria

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots15

1.68Expected Goals (xG)2.13

4Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots15

3On Target9

5Off Target2

7Blocked4

8Inside Box10

7Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

390Total Passes443

311Accurate Passes373

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

0.27Goals Prevented0.27

Discipline

15Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Euro Championship: Poland 1–3 Austria

Austria beat Poland 3-1 in Euro Championship on June 21, 2024.

Goals: G. Trauner (9'), K. Piątek (30'), C. Baumgartner (66'), M. Arnautović (78' pen).

Austria controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.

Poland vs Austria — Euro Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Euro Championship: Poland 1–3 Austria