Poland 0–0 Austria: Result & Stats

Poland

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Austria

9/9/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Stadion Narodowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Poland36%

×Draw26%

Austria39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchAustria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

Poland

1.33

Austria

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.44

creates per match

1.56

1.22

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Poland

1.44

Austria

1.56

allows per match

Poland

1.22

Austria

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Austria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Poland or draw

61%

Poland or Austria

74%

Draw or Austria

64%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

16%

Austria wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

74%

Poland 2+ goals

38%

Poland 3+ goals

15%

Austria 1+ goals

75%

Austria 2+ goals

40%

Austria 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

48%

Austria (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Austria away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.44 + Austria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Austria attack 1.56 + Poland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Poland scores more

36%

level

26%

Austria scores more

39%

Austria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Ł. Fabiański

Poland · G

8.6

Match Events

8'

Marko Arnautović

33'

Marcel Sabitzer

46'

Konrad Laimer

58'

J. Błaszczykowski← D. Kownacki

70'

S. Szymański← K. Grosicki

77'

M. Klich← J. Błaszczykowski

77'

S. Ilsanker← V. Lazaro

85'

Mateusz Klich

89'

M. Gregoritsch← K. Laimer

90'

Krystian Bielik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PolandAustria

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots22

5Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots22

2On Target6

3Off Target9

2Blocked7

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box12

Passing

35%Possession65%

359Total Passes663

269Accurate Passes580

75%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

7Offsides2