Austria 1–1 Poland: Result & Stats

Austria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Poland

I. Vastic 90' (pen)

R. Guerreiro 30'

6/12/2008

Euro Championship · Group stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Austria44%

×Draw27%

Poland29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustriaExpected goals in this matchPoland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.09

Austria

1.40

Poland

1.09

Austria creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.89

creates per match

1.30

0.89

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Austria

1.89

Poland

1.30

allows per match

Austria

0.89

Poland

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria+0.00on par

Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Poland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Austria or draw

71%

Austria or Poland

73%

Draw or Poland

56%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+

21%

Poland wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals

75%

Austria 2+ goals

41%

Austria 3+ goals

17%

Poland 1+ goals

66%

Poland 2+ goals

30%

Poland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)

60%

Poland (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Poland away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 1.89 + Poland defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.40

Poland attack 1.30 + Austria defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Austria scores more

44%

level

27%

Poland scores more

29%

Austria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

R. Guerreiro

45'

P. Golanski← M. Jop

64'

R. Kienast← R. Linz

65'

I. Vastic← A. Ivanschitz

74'

J. Säumel← R. Aufhauser

83'

W. Lobodzinski← M. Saganowski

85'

R. Murawski← R. Guerreiro

90'

I. VasticPenalty

Austria

Poland

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

64'▲R. Kienast←▼R. Linz

65'▲I. Vastic←▼A. Ivanschitz

74'▲J. Säumel←▼R. Aufhauser

Austria substitutes

KienastVasticSäumel

45'▲P. Golanski←▼M. Jop

83'▲W. Lobodzinski←▼M. Saganowski

85'▲R. Murawski←▼R. Guerreiro

Poland substitutes

GolanskiLobodzinskiMurawski

Euro Championship: Austria 1–1 Poland

Austria and Poland drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on June 12, 2008.

Goals: R. Guerreiro (30'), I. Vastic (90' pen).

Austria vs Poland — Euro Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Euro Championship: Austria 1–1 Poland