Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg: Result & Stats

Pogoń Siedlce

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

K. Podliński 90+3' (pen), 64'

Z. Petrović 3'

11/8/2024

I Liga · Round 16Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce48%

×Draw25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń SiedlceExpected goals in this matchKotwica Kołobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.11

Pogoń Siedlce

1.59

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.11

Pogoń Siedlce creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

0.94

1.29

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.12

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.94

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.29

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw

73%

Pogoń Siedlce or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

75%

Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

52%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

80%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

47%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

21%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

67%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

30%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

65%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.12 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 0.94 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

48%

level

25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

27%

Pogoń Siedlce at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

42'

44'

61'

61'

64'

82'

M. Majewski← D. Szuprytowski

82'

T. Milašius← K. Miś

86'

L. Ziętek← M. Bykowski

88'

A. Biegański← L. Kreković

88'

F. Kozłowski← Jonathan

90+3'

K. PodlińskiPenalty

Pogoń

Kotwica

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: A. Nocoń

61'▲D. Pik←▼P. Pyrdoł

61'▲M. Drąg←▼L. Hrnčiar

82'▲M. Majewski←▼D. Szuprytowski

82'▲T. Milašius←▼K. Miś

Pogoń Siedlce substitutes

PikDrągMajewskiMilašiusTopórDanielewiczKrzyżakZinkevychMajewski

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

86'▲L. Ziętek←▼M. Bykowski

88'▲A. Biegański←▼L. Kreković

88'▲F. Kozłowski←▼Jonathan

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

ZiętekBiegańskiKozłowskiTrojnarskiKortKrzepiszCywińskiKostevych

I Liga: Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Pogoń Siedlce beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2-1 in I Liga on November 8, 2024.

Goals: Z. Petrović (3'), K. Podliński (64', 90+3' pen).

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.

Pogoń Siedlce vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg