Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce: Result & Stats

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pogoń Siedlce

A. Frączczak 66'

C. Bujalski 38'

6/4/2023

II Liga - East · Round 34Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg45%

×Draw26%

Pogoń Siedlce29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchPogoń Siedlce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.16

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.50

Pogoń Siedlce

1.16

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

1.41

creates per match

1.52

0.79

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.41

Pogoń Siedlce

1.52

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.79

Pogoń Siedlce

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

71%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Pogoń Siedlce

74%

Draw or Pogoń Siedlce

55%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

22%

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

78%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

44%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

19%

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

69%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

32%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

61%

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

45%

level

26%

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

29%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

15'

38'

51'

55'

59'

P. Lysiak

60'

B. Wicenciak

60'

T. Kaczmarek← Ł. Kosakiewicz

66'

A. Frączczak

67'

M. Rakowski← K. Bartoś

69'

M. Rutkowski

69'

J. Soljic

69'

E. Dzieciol

75'

M. Majewski← D. Nowak

78'

J. Bojas← A. Frączczak

78'

M. Cywiński← J. Šoljić

81'

M. Rakowski

83'

J. Sinior← C. Bujalski

84'

90+2'

90+7'

90+8'

90+6'

K. Włodyka← B. Wicenciak

Kotwica

Pogoń

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Frączczak

Łysiak

Manager: M. Bartoszek

60'▲T. Kaczmarek←▼Ł. Kosakiewicz

67'▲M. Rakowski←▼K. Bartoś

78'▲J. Bojas←▼A. Frączczak

78'▲M. Cywiński←▼J. Šoljić

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

KaczmarekRakowskiBojasCywiński

75'▲M. Majewski←▼D. Nowak

83'▲J. Sinior←▼C. Bujalski

90+6'▲K. Włodyka←▼B. Wicenciak

Pogoń Siedlce substitutes

MajewskiSiniorWłodyka

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Pogoń Siedlce

Kotwica Kołobrzeg and Pogoń Siedlce drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on June 4, 2023.

Goals: C. Bujalski (38'), A. Frączczak (66').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Pogoń Siedlce