Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce: Result & Stats

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pogoń Siedlce

J. Pérez 90+3'

K. Miś 64'

5/17/2025

I Liga · Round 33Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg38%

×Draw29%

Pogoń Siedlce34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchPogoń Siedlce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.07

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.15

Pogoń Siedlce

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.76

creates per match

0.97

1.18

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.76

Pogoń Siedlce

0.97

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.18

Pogoń Siedlce

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

66%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Pogoń Siedlce

71%

Draw or Pogoń Siedlce

62%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

16%

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

68%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

32%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

11%

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

66%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

29%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

53%

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 0.76 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.15

Pogoń Siedlce attack 0.97 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

38%

level

29%

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

34%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Drag

51'

T. Welna

64'

K. Miś

66'

K. Podlinski

78'

V. Kostevych← K. Kort

80'

E. Dzięcioł← D. Szuprytowski

80'

M. Bykowski← N. Zielonka

84'

L. Ziętek← M. Kurowski

89'

K. Danielewicz← M. Drąg

90+4'

E. Dzieciol

90+3'

J. Pérez

Kotwica

Pogoń

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Tworek

78'▲V. Kostevych←▼K. Kort

84'▲L. Ziętek←▼M. Kurowski

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

KostevychZiętekTrojnarskiCucoșKrzepiszLasekNawate

Manager: A. Nocoń

80'▲E. Dzięcioł←▼D. Szuprytowski

80'▲M. Bykowski←▼N. Zielonka

89'▲K. Danielewicz←▼M. Drąg

Pogoń Siedlce substitutes

DzięciołBykowskiDanielewiczDemianiukPikTopórMajewskiPyrdołMilašius

I Liga: Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce

Kotwica Kołobrzeg and Pogoń Siedlce drew 1-1 in I Liga on May 17, 2025.

Goals: K. Miś (64'), J. Pérez (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Pogoń Siedlce — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce