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Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Obolon'-Brovar II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
CANC
00:00
Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
4/17/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi58%
×Draw24%
Obolon'-Brovar II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.70
Obolon'-Brovar II
0.83

Podillya Khmelnytskyi creates 105% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.58
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.05

allows per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.62
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.82

finishing

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par
Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podillya Khmelnytskyi ↓

Obolon'-Brovar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or draw
82%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi or Obolon'-Brovar II
76%
Draw or Obolon'-Brovar II
42%

Winning margin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
32%
Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
82%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
51%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
24%
Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
56%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
20%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
76%
Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Obolon'-Brovar II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.58 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 1.05 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
58%
level
24%
Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
18%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Podillya Khmelnytskyi face Obolon'-Brovar II (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with Podillya Khmelnytskyi hosting Obolon'-Brovar II. Match starts April 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.