Obolon'-Brovar II 0–3 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Obolon'-Brovar II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

V. Kalinin 78'

V. Kaverin 45+1'

S. Zuevych 26'

10/18/2019

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 16Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar II26%

×Draw26%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-Brovar IIExpected goals in this matchPodillya Khmelnytskyi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.54

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.04

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.54

Podillya Khmelnytskyi creates 48% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

0.73

creates per match

1.40

1.68

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar II

0.73

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.40

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.68

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar II ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar II or draw

51%

Obolon'-Brovar II or Podillya Khmelnytskyi

74%

Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi

74%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+

9%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals

65%

Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals

28%

Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals

9%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals

79%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals

45%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)

34%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 0.73 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.40 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more

26%

level

26%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more

49%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

S. Zuevych

45+1'

V. Kaverin

46'

A. Chidomere← D. Sychevskyi

46'

D. Kasimov← V. Ulyanchenko

59'

A. Doroshenko← A. Panasenkov

78'

V. Kalinin

79'

A. Romanyuk← V. Kalinin

84'

E. Nesterenko← Y. Shpikula

85'

V. Kolomiets← I. Tyurin

88'

R. Khudik← S. Zuevych

90'

A. Arakelyan← D. Ostrovskyi

90'

A. Rafalskyi← V. Tkach

90'

Y. Butsenko← O. Volovyk

Obolon'-Brovar

Podillya

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Mazurenko

46'▲A. Chidomere←▼D. Sychevskyi

46'▲D. Kasimov←▼V. Ulyanchenko

85'▲V. Kolomiets←▼I. Tyurin

90'▲A. Arakelyan←▼D. Ostrovskyi

90'▲A. Rafalskyi←▼V. Tkach

Obolon'-Brovar II substitutes

ChidomereKasimovKolomietsArakelyanRafalskyi

Manager: A. Fedorenko

59'▲A. Doroshenko←▼A. Panasenkov

79'▲A. Romanyuk←▼V. Kalinin

84'▲E. Nesterenko←▼Y. Shpikula

88'▲R. Khudik←▼S. Zuevych

90'▲Y. Butsenko←▼O. Volovyk

Podillya Khmelnytskyi substitutes

DoroshenkoRomanyukNesterenkoKhudikButsenko

Match Recap: Obolon'-Brovar II vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Podillya Khmelnytskyi beat Obolon'-Brovar II 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on October 18, 2019.

Goals: S. Zuevych (26'), V. Kaverin (45+1'), V. Kalinin (78').

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.

Obolon'-Brovar II vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Obolon'-Brovar II vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi