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Obolon'-Brovar II vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
9/20/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 3Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar II26%
×Draw26%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obolon'-Brovar II
1.04
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.54

Podillya Khmelnytskyi creates 48% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar II
0.73
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.40

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar II
1.68
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.36

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar II ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar II or draw
51%
Obolon'-Brovar II or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
74%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
74%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
9%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
65%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
28%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
9%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
79%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
45%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
34%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 0.73 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.40 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
26%
level
26%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
49%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Obolon'-Brovar II 0–0 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Obolon'-Brovar II and Podillya Khmelnytskyi drew 0-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.