Podillya Khmelnytskyi 0–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

8/19/2023

Persha Liga · Round 4Stadion Podillia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi32%

×Draw31%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podillya KhmelnytskyiExpected goals in this matchEpitsentr Dunayivtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.07

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

0.95

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.07

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

1.08

creates per match

1.08

1.06

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.08

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.08

allows per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.06

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podillya Khmelnytskyi ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or draw

62%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

69%

Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

68%

Winning margin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+

11%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals

61%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals

25%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals

7%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

66%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

29%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)

45%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.08 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more

32%

level

31%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

38%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Voitikhovskyi← I. Kovalenko

61'

R. Nazarchuk← H. Savchuk

61'

V. Kaverin← K. Kostenko

64'

I. Bendera← A. Liashenko

64'

S. Hryn← M. Hirnyi

74'

M. Poliuliakh← O. Zhmuida

74'

V. Krystin← Y. Hlushchuk

80'

S. Vasylenko

87'

Y. Dobrokhotov← D. Bozhenar

Podillya

Epitsentr

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Kostyshyn

46'▲M. Voitikhovskyi←▼I. Kovalenko

61'▲R. Nazarchuk←▼H. Savchuk

61'▲V. Kaverin←▼K. Kostenko

87'▲Y. Dobrokhotov←▼D. Bozhenar

Podillya Khmelnytskyi substitutes

VoitikhovskyiNazarchukKaverinDobrokhotovPetrychenkoOrobetsLysSimininBykov

Manager: S. Nahorniak

64'▲I. Bendera←▼A. Liashenko

64'▲S. Hryn←▼M. Hirnyi

74'▲M. Poliuliakh←▼O. Zhmuida

74'▲V. Krystin←▼Y. Hlushchuk

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi substitutes

BenderaHrynPoliuliakhKrystinPavluchenkoMyroniukBuriakZhmurko

Match Recap: Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Podillya Khmelnytskyi and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 0-0 in Persha Liga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Podillia in Khmelnytskyi.

Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi