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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
6/11/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 26Stadion Kolos Dunaivtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi52%
×Draw25%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.57
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.94

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 67% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.68
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.32

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.55
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.46

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw
77%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
75%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
48%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
27%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
79%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
46%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
21%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
61%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
24%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
70%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.68 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.32 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
52%
level
25%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
23%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Podillya Khmelnytskyi beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on June 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kolos Dunaivtsi in Dunaivtsi.