Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi49%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 50% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches
Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.84 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50
Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bukovyna
Livyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Inhulets
Metal Kharkiv
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Yarud Mariupol'
Probiy Horodenka
UCSA
Prykarpattia
Nyva Ternopil
Chernihiv
Vorskla PoltavaPodillya Khmelnytskyi
Metalurh ZaporizhyaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host Podillya Khmelnytskyi on Saturday, 28 September 2024 at 11:00. The match is part of the Persha Liga 2019/2020 season.
Persha Liga: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2-1 in Persha Liga on September 28, 2024.
Goals: A. Lipovuz (49'), A. Bejenari (61'), O. Snizhko (65').
The match was played at Stadion im. H.A. Tonkocheieva in Kamianets-Podilskyi.