CSKA 1948 1–1 Tsarsko Selo: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tsarsko Selo

10/8/2018

Second League · Round 10Stadion Vasil Levski (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CSKA 194846%

×Draw25%

Tsarsko Selo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.23

CSKA 1948

1.59

Tsarsko Selo

1.23

CSKA 1948 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

2.19

creates per match

2.00

0.46

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

CSKA 1948

2.19

Tsarsko Selo

2.00

allows per match

CSKA 1948

0.46

Tsarsko Selo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

70%

CSKA 1948 or Tsarsko Selo

75%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

54%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

23%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

80%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

47%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

21%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

71%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

35%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

61%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.46 · 26 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 2.19 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.00 + CSKA 1948 defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

46%

level

25%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

30%

CSKA 1948 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff