Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Podbeskidzie vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
2/24/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Podbeskidzie49%
×Draw25%
Odra Opole26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podbeskidzie
1.60
Odra Opole
1.10

Podbeskidzie creates 45% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 138 away

creates per match

Podbeskidzie
1.59
Odra Opole
1.08

allows per match

Podbeskidzie
1.13
Odra Opole
1.60

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw
74%
Podbeskidzie or Odra Opole
75%
Draw or Odra Opole
51%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
25%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
80%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
47%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
22%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
67%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
30%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
65%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 1.59 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more
49%
level
25%
Odra Opole scores more
26%

Podbeskidzie at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podbeskidzie vs Odra Opole

Odra Opole beat Podbeskidzie 2-1 in I Liga on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Bielsko-Biała.