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Odra Opole vs Podbeskidzie — I Liga 2018

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
8/12/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Odra Opole41%
×Draw26%
Podbeskidzie33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.38
Podbeskidzie
1.21

Odra Opole creates 14% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 85 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.21
Podbeskidzie
1.31

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.11
Podbeskidzie
1.55

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Podbeskidzie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
67%
Odra Opole or Podbeskidzie
74%
Draw or Podbeskidzie
59%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
19%
Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
75%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
40%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
16%
Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
70%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
34%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
55%
Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Podbeskidzie attack 1.31 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odra Opole scores more
41%
level
26%
Podbeskidzie scores more
33%

Odra Opole at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Opole vs Podbeskidzie

Odra Opole beat Podbeskidzie 1-0 in I Liga on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Opole.