Plymouth 3–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huddersfield

O. Oseni 73'

A. Pepple 59' (pen)

O. Dale 47'

C. Humphreys 26'

3/21/2026

League One · Round 39Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Plymouth45%

×Draw23%

Huddersfield32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.46

Plymouth

1.77

Huddersfield

1.46

Plymouth creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.28

creates per match

1.68

1.25

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

Huddersfield

1.68

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

Huddersfield

1.26

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

Huddersfield-0.04on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

68%

Plymouth or Huddersfield

77%

Draw or Huddersfield

55%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

24%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

83%

Plymouth 2+ goals

53%

Plymouth 3+ goals

26%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

77%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

43%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

58%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.26 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Huddersfield defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Huddersfield attack 1.68 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Plymouth scores more

45%

level

23%

Huddersfield scores more

32%

Plymouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Humphreys

Huddersfield · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

18'

18'

26'

44'

45+4'

J. Alnwick← L. Nicholls

47'

O. Dale

49'

D. Kasumu← R. Ledson

54'

C. Ashia← A. Evans

59'

A. PepplePenalty

68'

W. Harding← J. MacKenzie

73'

O. Oseni

77'

D. Charles← S. Roughan

77'

L. Sorensen← L. Gooch

79'

C. Roberts← J. Paterson

82'

Josh Feeney

88'

X. Amaechi← O. Oseni

89'

B. Galloway← A. Pepple

90+3'

Xavier Amaechi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthHuddersfield

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots13

4.83Expected Goals (xG)1.32

5Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots13

9On Target5

3Off Target3

5Blocked5

15Inside Box6

2Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

287Total Passes380

180Accurate Passes261

63%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2