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Huddersfield vs Plymouth — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Plymouth
Plymouth
1/13/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Huddersfield52%
×Draw26%
Plymouth22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.52
Plymouth
0.90

Huddersfield creates 69% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 46 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.22
Plymouth
0.63

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.17
Plymouth
1.83

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
78%
Huddersfield or Plymouth
74%
Draw or Plymouth
48%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
27%
Plymouth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
78%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
45%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
20%
Plymouth 1+ goals
59%
Plymouth 2+ goals
23%
Plymouth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
70%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.22 + Plymouth defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Plymouth attack 0.63 + Huddersfield defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Huddersfield scores more
52%
level
26%
Plymouth scores more
22%

Huddersfield at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Huddersfield 1–1 Plymouth

Huddersfield and Plymouth drew 1-1 in Championship on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.