Plymouth 3–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Huddersfield

R. Hardie 76'

B. Mumba 73'

M. Whittaker 6'

M. Helik 45+6'

8/5/2023

Championship · Round 1Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Plymouth46%

×Draw24%

Huddersfield30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.33

Plymouth

1.70

Huddersfield

1.33

Plymouth creates 28% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 117 away

1.76

creates per match

1.04

1.61

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Plymouth

1.76

Huddersfield

1.04

allows per match

Plymouth

1.61

Huddersfield

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

70%

Plymouth or Huddersfield

76%

Draw or Huddersfield

54%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

24%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

82%

Plymouth 2+ goals

51%

Plymouth 3+ goals

24%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

74%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

38%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

61%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.76 + Huddersfield defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Huddersfield attack 1.04 + Plymouth defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Plymouth scores more

46%

level

24%

Huddersfield scores more

30%

Plymouth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Whittaker

Plymouth · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

M. Whittaker

42'

J. Hogg← M. Pearson

45+6'

M. Helik

73'

B. Mumba↳ K. Kesler-Hayden

76'

R. Hardie↳ M. Whittaker

77'

B. Jackson← S. Thomas

77'

P. Jones← B. Diarra

84'

K. Harratt← J. Koroma

86'

M. Butcher← A. Randell

88'

89'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthHuddersfield

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots15

2.17Expected Goals (xG)2.02

2Corners8

9Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots15

7On Target3

1Off Target8

6Blocked4

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

334Total Passes275

228Accurate Passes186

68%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Plymouth vs Huddersfield

Plymouth beat Huddersfield 3-1 in Championship on August 5, 2023.

Goals: M. Whittaker (6'), M. Helik (45+6'), B. Mumba (73'), R. Hardie (76').

Plymouth controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.

Plymouth vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Plymouth vs Huddersfield