Plymouth 4–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Cheltenham

S. Cosgrove 83'

C. Wright 64'

R. Hardie 28'

D. Scarr 26'

A. May 70'

T. Perry 40'

1/21/2023

League One · Round 28Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Plymouth48%

×Draw25%

Cheltenham27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.13

Plymouth

1.61

Cheltenham

1.13

Plymouth creates 42% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 69 away

1.55

creates per match

1.01

1.24

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Plymouth

1.55

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Plymouth

1.24

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

73%

Plymouth or Cheltenham

75%

Draw or Cheltenham

52%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

25%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

80%

Plymouth 2+ goals

48%

Plymouth 3+ goals

22%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

68%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

31%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

64%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Plymouth scores more

48%

level

25%

Cheltenham scores more

27%

Plymouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

C. Wright

Plymouth · F

7.9

Match Events

26'

D. Scarr↳ J. Houghton

28'

R. Hardie↳ F. Azaz

40'

T. Perry↳ W. Ferry

64'

C. Wright↳ F. Azaz

65'

B. Waine← F. Azaz

70'

A. May↳ J. Olayinka

73'

S. Cosgrove← R. Hardie

73'

J. Edwards← T. Wright

79'

Elliot Bonds

81'

C. Norton← E. Bonds

81'

B. Williams← W. Ferry

83'

S. Cosgrove↳ J. Matete

87'

N. Lonwijk← B. Mumba

87'

M. Butcher← C. Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthCheltenham

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots9

6Corners5

9Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots9

6On Target4

7Off Target3

2Blocked2

13Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

520Total Passes288

401Accurate Passes168

77%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5