Cheltenham 0–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Plymouth

Z. Rudden 33'

12/26/2019

League Two · Round 23Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Cheltenham37%

×Draw27%

Plymouth36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Cheltenham

1.27

Plymouth

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 24 away

1.49

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.49

Plymouth

1.33

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.17

Plymouth

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

64%

Cheltenham or Plymouth

73%

Draw or Plymouth

63%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

16%

Plymouth wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

72%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

36%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Plymouth 1+ goals

71%

Plymouth 2+ goals

36%

Plymouth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

51%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more

37%

level

27%

Plymouth scores more

36%

Cheltenham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

Z. Rudden

Plymouth · F

7.7

Match Events

33'

Z. Rudden↳ A. Sarcevic

45'

Gary Sawyer

61'

D. Telford← B. Clarke

62'

G. Lloyd← G. Reilly

70'

Joel Grant← Z. Rudden

76'

M. Sheaf← A. Addai

78'

J. Edwards← G. Cooper

86'

W. Boyle← C. Clements

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamPlymouth

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots12

6Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots12

2On Target3

7Off Target8

4Blocked1

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

478Total Passes371

350Accurate Passes248

73%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

5Offsides4