Cheltenham 0–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Plymouth

M. Whittaker 78'

12/26/2022

League One · Round 23Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham37%

×Draw26%

Plymouth37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.35

Cheltenham

1.34

Plymouth

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 114 away

1.19

creates per match

1.39

1.32

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

63%

Cheltenham or Plymouth

74%

Draw or Plymouth

63%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

17%

Plymouth wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

74%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

39%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

15%

Plymouth 1+ goals

74%

Plymouth 2+ goals

39%

Plymouth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

50%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more

37%

level

26%

Plymouth scores more

37%

Cheltenham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Cooper

Plymouth · G

8.3

Match Events

38'

Sean Long

41'

Nigel Cello Lonwijk

61'

R. Hardie← A. Randell

61'

J. Houghton← M. Butcher

62'

S. Cosgrove← N. Ennis

71'

W. Ferry← B. Williams

71'

R. Jackson← J. Olayinka

72'

78'

82'

83'

83'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamPlymouth

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots13

6Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots13

6On Target3

6Off Target5

4Blocked5

14Inside Box4

2Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

309Total Passes393

192Accurate Passes267

62%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2