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Plaza Colonia vs CA River Plate — Segunda División 2026

Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CA River Plate
CA River Plate
N. Gonzalez 90', 65'
V. Amoroso 3'
3/28/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 3Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Plaza Colonia51%
×Draw25%
CA River Plate24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plaza Colonia
1.56
CA River Plate
0.99

Plaza Colonia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 9 away

creates per match

Plaza Colonia
1.24
CA River Plate
1.11

allows per match

Plaza Colonia
0.86
CA River Plate
1.89

finishing

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par
CA River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Colonia ↓

CA River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Plaza Colonia or draw
76%
Plaza Colonia or CA River Plate
75%
Draw or CA River Plate
49%

Winning margin

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+
26%
CA River Plate wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals
79%
Plaza Colonia 2+ goals
46%
Plaza Colonia 3+ goals
21%
CA River Plate 1+ goals
63%
CA River Plate 2+ goals
26%
CA River Plate 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)
68%
CA River Plate (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

CA River Plate away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Colonia attack 1.24 + CA River Plate defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

CA River Plate attack 1.11 + Plaza Colonia defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Plaza Colonia scores more
51%
level
25%
CA River Plate scores more
24%

Plaza Colonia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
V. Amoroso
65'
N. Gonzalez
80'
87'
90'
N. Gonzalez
Plaza
CA
Luis Mena
Manager: Luis Mena
Raul Salazar
Manager: Raul Salazar

Plaza Colonia 3 – 0 CA River Plate

Plaza Colonia beat CA River Plate 3-0 in Segunda División on March 28, 2026.

Goals: V. Amoroso (3'), N. Gonzalez (65', 90').

The match was played at Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi in Colonia del Sacramento.